MondayMorningInsight - Leadership & Encouragement for Church Leaders

So, Is the SBC Really in Decline, or is this just a Blip?

Posted by: Todd
Posted on: Tue, April 29, 2008
Viewed 56
(9) comments so far

Some other quotes of note from the SBC Leadership:

Thom Rainer, President of Lifeway Christian Resources:
“Although we pray God will bring revival and change, the trajectory is not positive. If current trends don’t change, it seems we are about to enter a period of declining membership.”

Chuck Lawless, Dean of the Billy Graham School of Missions, Evangelism & Church Growth:
“The data show that churches in the Southern Baptist Convention are in maintenance mode at best and headed toward decline. Too much is at stake for us to sit by and fade into irrelevance in North America. We desperately need God to move us, change us, and redirect us to Great Commission obedience.”

Lifeway’s Cliff Tharp:
“In 1998 the SBC statistics reflected a 1.02 percent decrease in Total Membership (-162,158) and a very minor drop in the total number of churches (-17). At least two factors may have impacted this. First, it seems that there may have been corrective activity in the area of assuring the accuracy of reporting the status of churches (disbanded, merged, no longer SBC, etc). Software had begun to be used widespread a couple of years earlier and errors may have occurred in this area of reporting. The fact that the number of churches increased in 1999 and subsequent years would tend to support this interpretation. Second, for the collection of 1998 statistics, seven state conventions began to use their own forms and processes. The impact of this upon statistics is not known. It is obvious that for several years after this occurrence, the numbers for these two items recovered and increased. The developments of 1998 should be seen, and interpreted, in the broader context of the growth/decline of Southern Baptist numbers.”

So, what is the solution? Here’s what Stetzer recommends.

For Your Input: What do you think of the Lifeway Research numbers? What do you think should be the course of action for the SBC for the future?

You can watch an interview we did with Ed the day the research came out, here...

Many Southern Baptists are talking these days about Ed Stetzer's research released last week, detailing the numbers about decline in the nation's largest denomination. Some are arguing that this is a one year number, and not a trend; but Stetzer seems to differ. "The SBC has had a growing membership count for decades, but only marginal growth since 2000. From 2000 through 2006, the growth has been close to a plateau, registering .68, .58, .53, .42, .39, .02 and .22 percent respectively. You can graph those years pretty easily and see the trend. Not surprisingly, this year we declined. Some have said this is the first membership decline ever. That is not true. There was one in 1998 and there have been others decades before. However, I believe this time is different. I believe that, unless we have a significant intervention, we have peaked, at least in regards to membership..." As this graph from my earlier post demonstrates, we saw a decline of 1.02% in 1998, much larger than the 0.24% decline in 2007. (Look closely at the graph below.) As argument goes, if we recovered then, we can do so now as well.

Comments

if you want a Globally Recognized Avatar (the images next to your profile) get them here. Once you sign up, they will displayed on any website that supports them.

Camey on Tue, April 29, 2008

We must get over the numbers for the sake of numbers. We must see individuals, faces, names, places, and etc….. Life/death…

We must ask for forgiveness for making the SBC about things it was never intended to be about. We must ask God to change us, move us… and use us. We must be about our Father’s business. Not for the sake of making one denomination bigger than another. For at the end of a person’s moments - being affliated with a denomination saves no one. It is only God Himself who does that.

I pray for my brothers and sisters in Christ as I pray for myself…. I have shared here on MMI before of times when I would walk up to a door and knock and say, “Hello. I’m Camey. I am a Southern Baptist. Let me share with you about our God. “ I have repented from those days. And while I may in some ways represent this denomination - if I am not seen as His first, last and in-between. If I am not loving others like Jesus…. then honestly - what is the point? There is none worthy.

Lord, let Your Word fall on us. May our eyes be wide open.
Ryan on Tue, April 29, 2008

I heard a great quote recently from Bob Roberts of Northwood Chuch in Keller, TX.

He said something like, “would you rather have a church that is large in numbers and small in local/global impact, or would you rather focus on beyond your walls and have a large impact, but perhaps smaller numbers?”

Good perspective, I thought.
Peter Hamm on Tue, April 29, 2008

I’d love to think that they’ll have the good sense to seek God and look strategically at what they are doing and not just “react” to the numbers…
Tony Kummer on Tue, April 29, 2008

This is something else for us to argue about leading up to the convention. I’ve studied the same data from the last several years of the ACP in a class at Southern Seminary. Bottom line: this has been coming for at least 10 years according to the statistical trends.

The guys at LifeWay know that too.

The question is what is the convention going to do to get serious about reaching lost people.
Melody on Tue, April 29, 2008

Sometimes, the “impact” can be be assessed by examining the budget. For example, I can think of one large SBC church in my area with a multi million dollar budget and large attendance whose budget for missions and outreach totals less than 3% of the total church budget. (And the largest portion of the “outreach” budget last year was the indoor playground they built for their children’s ministry building.)

On the other hand, I am aware of a small SBC church whose missions and outreach expenditures are nearly half of their budget.

Backsides in the pews of the local congregation aren’t always an indicator of impact for the kingdom.
Camey on Wed, April 30, 2008

Tony,

One way is to pray for Darby. She was mine and hubby’s server yesterday when we were on a lunch date. She is unchurched. She is wanting to change her life. We know because we asked her how could we pray for her.

You, I, and plenty of others know this is not new news. I came to understand about this through my connections with pastors and churches all over the USA. I encourage you to not argue about the numbers. There’s been enough arguing to last a lifetime or two….

And yes, I’m still praying for you/yours!

Todd,

Yep. I decided to not stay silent any longer. I know whom I answer to… http://www.mondaymorninginsight.com/images/smileys/smile.gif
Tony Kummer on Wed, April 30, 2008

Camey - Thanks for your comments on this post, I think you’ve got it right.

The problem with the SBC is a local problem—as local as me not talking to my neighbors about Jesus. I do appreciate the prayers.

Todd - Thanks for posting on this.
Dan Moore on Wed, April 30, 2008

Interesting. The Convention really cannot do much about the numbers. It is the local church where the frontline is. Numbers only tell a part of the story of what is happening. In the church I serve, about 30 percent of the budget is allocated to missions per Acts 1:8. There are other numbers that the SBC need to look at: active and inactive. When I arrived at my present work, there were 171 names on the church register yet I could only find 31. Part of the problem was a lack of accountability and some older members stating that we could not take the names off the rolls unless a letter was received or notice that the person died. Well, we began our work and discovered about 30 had died, about 50 moved and left no forwarding address. Others, who knows. Besides amending our By-Laws to allow the removal of names in a biblical yet accountable fashion, we also began reaching out to people. Today, every name on our rolls I know personally. So do our deacons and Sunday School teachers. We not only have to reach the lost but when they are saved, we have to keep them!
Peter Hamm on Wed, April 30, 2008

The discussion of the numbers, whether it’s 3% or 20% or 50%, is, imho, symptomatic of the root of what could be much of the problem, not just with some SBC churches, but some of all of our churches.

How much of my church’s budget is missions? I had a little epiphany QUITE a few years ago… Easy. 100%. Facilities, Salary, donuts and coffee on Sunday… you name it, it’s all about being the mission of Christ in the local community. But it follows that we think “missionally” about what we’re doing. Do we have activities that are too insular? Do we do things that have absolutely no relevance or value to people in the culture at large.

Do we need to stop doing ____________(you fill in the blank)?

so we can start doing _____________(you fill in that one, too)?

I’m not advocating not funding true “missionary” activities, whether foreign or domestic. yes, Let’s do that, especially foreign missions, since we are the richest country on earth. But everything we do in the church should be our “local mission”. The local church IS the mission. I know many if not all of you know that. But perhaps there are enough churches that don’t that it affects the statistics the SBC is looking at.