Monday Morning Insights

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    The Four Curves of Want and Get

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    Seth Godin is a genius.  Well, at least as far as I'm concerned... he has a way of verbalizing some of the things that I have a hard time putting on paper. He writes from more of a marketing/business background, but what he says applies well, I think to the church and what we do as leaders...  I'll improvise a little of what Seth wrote to make it a little more applicable to our situations.Take a look at these graphs:

    Fourcurves

    When you launch a new ministry, service, church, (or whatever), you want A. A is a steep launch curve followed, after the dotted line, by a steep acceptance curve.

    A is the curve of the hot knife through butter. A is the curve of big buzz. A is the curve of the unserved audience and the perfect idea.

    That's what you want.

    Usually, though, you get B.

    B looks the same as A for a while. But then it stops.

    B stops because your new idea isn't for everybody. B stops because many new ministries and offerings have a small but eager audience of early adopters, just itching to try something new. And then, once reality sets in, your idea stops spreading.

    Seth continues... When I launched my ebook, I thought for a minute I had A. I sold a bazillion of them in one night. And then, bam, I had B. Sales slowed really fast. Why? Was it lousy? I don't think it was. I think the audience of people who were standing by to buy an ebook from me was very connected to me and to each other, they heard about it right away, they bought it right away and then, there you go, the entire market was saturated.

    Curve C is the most likely curve of success, not A. Curve C is the remarkable idea that takes a while to find its footing. Then, the idea starts moving through communities and slowly builds, until, yes, this new thing is remarkable and you've got a hit.

    Alas, soon after launch, there's no way to tell C from D, is there? D is the curve of the dud. Most launches are duds. Not a lot you can do about it.

    The challenges are pretty obvious. First, how do you decide where to put the dotted line? Second, how do you avoid killing something too early, or celebrating too early. And last, how do you know when to kill a dud? The odds are with those smart enough to launch something new tomorrow.

    Where do you draw the line in ministry?  How do you know when something new you're trying is successful?  How do you determine when something new you're trying is a bomb and needs to be discontinued? 

    Sometimes I think we error on both sides many times... keeping what isn't working, hoping that it magically will start working; while at other times canning things too early, before they really get a chance to take hold.  To be sure, this is one of the most challenging things in leadership; and in ministry leadership in particular.

    FOR DISCUSSION:  So... are you a good line drawer?  How do you make these tough decisions?  Can you give us any examples in your ministry that might be helpful to others today?  I'd love to hear your input!

    As a pastor of church leader, how do you feel when you start something new?  It could be a new ministry, a new class, a new worship service… even a new church plant.  There is always a risk of failure with something new.  But how do you know if your ‘new thing’ is a giant success or a huge flop?  Sometimes it’s hard to tell initially.  That’s what today’s insight is all about…

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    1. BeHim on Mon, June 27, 2005

      I’m going to be honest with you.  I love Seth Godin too, I have some of his books as well as others (Jay Abrams, Robert Kiosaki, etc) but we are not in sales.


      The ministry is gauged by individuals.  One at a time or 3 at a time or 12 at a time.


      Not as sales but growth:  In the grace and knowledge of Jesus.

      We’ve turned christianity into an organization that operates like a business and it ought not to be so.


      Discipleship takes time and effort.  A relationship.


      I too could re-engineer the Bible or a message or concept and sell billions of them too (I’m tempted by the allure of it also) but I/we shouldn’t.  Why?  Because we don’t serve two masters.

       

      It’s easy, love your neighbor… not neighbors… otherwise we would try to love millions of our neighbors at one time.  Love the 1 or 2 or 3 (and start with your wife/spouse and children) that God has placed in your life.  If you’re faithful in these maybe He’ll give you 12 or more.


      Teach them as though they were ALL your children.

       

      That’s my two cents and sorry if I’m ranting.  I obviously have a zeal for seeing Christians grow and mature, not learning how to maximize their opportunity.  The world teaches these things, we need to separate from these things.

       

    2. Todd Rhoades on Mon, June 27, 2005

      Thanks, BeHim… but I tried to be very careful to explain that I wasn’t talking about sales here… that’s why I said that we’d apply some of what Seth said to new things that we start in ministry.

      Of course, there are always other things to look at other than numbers and money in any ministry start-up.  What I hoped to do was to get a conversation going on how these decisions are made.  How do you know when something is successful (or read “being used of God”) in your church?  How do you know when something is a drain (not just on finances) in your church and needs to be changed or dropped altogether.  These are the decisions and the processes that fascinate me.


      Todd

       

    3. Jim Egli on Mon, June 27, 2005

      Hi, Todd.


      Thanks for sharing this. Very helpful. I have started something new lately and right now it looks like “D” but I think it must be “C.” Why do I think it is “C” and not “D”? I think it’s C because I have felt like God told me to do it. I have still have a lot to learn and changes to make to what I am doing but I think it is going to take off if I hang in there. So your blog is very encouraging and timely for me.

      I like business articles. There is so much we can learn from them because like us we are working with people, ideas and resources to make thing happen in new ways.


      Thanks again. Jim Egli http://www.mondaymorninginsight.com/images/smileys/grin.gif

       

    4. Todd Rhoades on Mon, June 27, 2005

      Thanks, Jim… and I think you do make a great point… when God tells you to do something (and you’re confident about that), then the curve really takes on less importance since you know what the end result should be.

    5. Shawn Wood on Mon, June 27, 2005

      Todd,

      Great Post.  I think that we need to be contantly measuring and evaluating how the cooportae church is doing.  In regards to BeHim’s statement, if everyone in a church of 500 is loving their neighbor - it has just become 500-1000 (or maybe even 1200-15500 if you add children) neighbors.  So I think it does matter.  If the church is not growing numarically then we have an issue!


      Another great idea on evaluation is evaluation of programs/services/ministries as to their effectiveness at creating an enviroment of God experinences.

       

      Andy Stanly had a great talk on this at the C3 conference this year.  He said that he asks his staff every Monday…“Is there anything that we are having to manufacture energy for”...I have started to use this as a tool for determinining some “D” projects and releasing them…


      I love this stuff too by the way..thanks for bringing it up.  If learning from Sales/Marketing and business people will decrease the population of hell - I am all for it!

       

    6. Swan on Mon, June 27, 2005

      I gotta be honest… I am so bewildered by how the Church has come to see itself as a corporate structure. I am frightened by this, and it is simply a long way from what God is calling us to do. To be sure, looking at statistics and bell-curve analyisis has a place in running a church… but it should *not* be a determining factor in what is effective.

      Jesus only healed one person at the pool iof Bethsaida… was this an unsuccesful ministry since many others continued in afflictions? Certainly not! Jesus was simply about His Father’s business, not a corporate model of success.


      Please note John 5:19, and see that we are to press into God in much prayer to determine what is succesful… not corporate strategies and models.

       

    7. Todd Rhoades on Mon, June 27, 2005

      OK… we’re not going down this road of arguing how ‘business’ like the church is.  That was not the intent of this article (and I even prefaced that).

      The church and it’s ministries have a lot that business doesn’t have to offer… things like divine inspiration; the power of God; and the moving and direction of the Holy Spirit.


      That being said; to just look at something (like the above) and say that there is nothing we (as a church) can learn from it, I think, is extremely short-sighted. 


      This is a a place where we talk about any kind of principles that might help us in reaching people for Christ.  That might be a scriptural passage; it might be the example of another church or leader; or it might even (like in this case), be something totally outside the church that can help spark our ideas.

       

      Alright, I’m off my soapbox.  My question (to Swan and others) is… how do YOU determine when it is time to change something that’s obviously not working at your church?  (That’s really all this post asks)…


      Thanks… let’s keep it positive and helpful; but stay off the ‘church is just like a business’ road for now.

       

      Todd

       

    8. BeHim on Mon, June 27, 2005

      Are 500 being discipled?  Can you effectively/efficiently disciple 500 people at one time?  For how long?


      Discipleship is not the latest Max Lucado book and facilitate questions.


      Discipleship is one on one q&a;, hanging out, eating dinner together, traveling together, etc.

      We’ve missed the boat on discipleship and have replaced it with “studies” thinking if we skip all the hum drum stuff, we’ll make more disciples faster (like the marketing solution:  if you give people more and more for less and less to more and more people you’ll be highly successful - mcdonalds business philosophy).


      I know Todd doesn’t want to go here but I wanted to answer a couple of the statements.

       

      So let me get back to what Todd asked:


      How do you know when something is successful (or read “being used of God”) in your church? How do you know when something is a drain (not just on finances) in your church and needs to be changed or dropped altogether. These are the decisions and the processes that fascinate me.


      I think there was a good answer to that earlier.  I think you gauge what you’re doing is from God or not BEFORE you start.  I was taught that if you feel God wants you to teach a Genesis or Romans or Psalms or (fill in the blank) study then step out and do it.  Don’t gauge the success on how many people attend but rather how much they are growing and BECAUSE you felt called of God to do it, if no one shows up, do it anyway, maybe God wants to teach you first.

       

      I think success in ministry is gauged on whether or not the people have grown in the grace and knowledge of Jesus Christ (do they know more about God and His Grace than they did when they started)?  It doesn’t matter if it’s 1 or 100.  If it is 1, who knows what that 1 might accomplish (like Paul) but if we cancel the class/course/instruction because only 1 enrolled, then imagine the boat missed/fruit lost.


      As far as when to drop something because it’s a “drain” in my opinion just spotlights the need to determine FIRST if God wants you to do it.


      Maybe a type of litmus test with a number of questions is in order.  Here’s a start:

       

      Is this what the Scriptures calls me to do?


      Is the book/study I’m using to teach, Scripturally correct (if not, what areas are in question)?

       

    9. Todd Rhoades on Mon, June 27, 2005

      BeHim wrote:


      “I know Todd doesn’t want to go here…”


      For the third time, yes, I don’t want to go here (on this post anyway).

      OK, here’s why (once again).


      Everything turns into an argument about who’s right; and I just don’t want that on this topic.  It wasn’t meant to be controversial.


      From the start, rather than giving examples of what the discussion was supposed to be, there was disagreement.  I thought I laid the best groundwork I could, and even clarified:  Ministry is not just reading the curve; it’s listening and doing what God wants us to do.

       

      Oh, if it were only that easy. If God were like you or me, we could go out to lunch and He could tell me exactly His plan for what He wants me to do.  Solidly. Specifically.  But it doesn’t quite work that way.  Even when we best try to discern what God wants us to do, we sometimes fail, or at least we seem to.


      Quick example.  I know of a church that felt called by God to start a new outreach service. After a year of planning and seeking God on the matter the service started. A year and a half later the church leaders decided to drop the service because the numbers were not what close to what they anticipated. 

       

      Their reasoning:  “There are not enough people being ministered to to justify the cost and effort.” 


      Fast forward some years… now the church itself is at the point where the number of people attending the entire church is less than the number of people ministered to in that one service that was canned. 


      My question to them is… why are you still around?  Why not disband?  Afterall, ‘the cost and time involved for that small of a group of people that now make up the entire church is not justified.’

       

      This is the crux of the issue that I raised in the initial post.  How do you know when something has run its course?  When do you know that the service you felt God called you to start is no longer worth it?  Or any other new thing that you start in the church?


      Again… not something I really wanted to argue about today; but rather something I wanted to hear about how people make that determination. 

       

      Hopefully this clarifies more.

       

    10. Pete King on Mon, June 27, 2005

      Todd,


      Great topic. I too am curious as to how others know when to move on or stick with the idea and see if it takes off. To be honest, I think this idea works not only for ministries but could tie in with your other posting about when to leave and when to stay at your church. I’m not sure when you posted it but, I think these two topics are related for two reasons. Number one, varying leadership styles determines how ministries will go and if they will take off. By this I mean that leadership varies in their approach to taking on new ministries within the church. I’ve been told that change needs to occur slowly but I’m not so sure that isn’t a leadership preference. Second, is the church body. How it responds to new ideas also plays a role in the success of new ministries. If the congregation is traditionally based than it’s more likely new ideas are going to struggle hugely. Before you even look at adding new minstries to the list you need to have strong leadership support for new ideas and if possible a congregation able to absorb the shock of something new. Then there is the other angle which I think really answers your question. Once the ministry is started and things are moving slow then one needs to look at wheither the ministry is practical and challenging yet not overwhelming. Second, is everyone envolved taking some ownership of its success? Are your people excited about what they are involved in? Is it fulfilling? Are you taking too much control of it which might make those around you see this ministry as “your thing” instead of God’s thing. As far as knowing an idea will be successful or a dud really is very difficult to determine. Of course you can customise to your audience’s needs and still not get off the ground. However, I try to remember when the Wright brothers built the first airplane how were they viewed and then there’s Thomas Edision who invented the light bulb. How odd that must have been when he came up with a glass bulb that produced light. Truth is, we cannot know wheither our ideas will be successful all we can do is try, plan, and refine as we go. Looking over things I’m not sure there are really bad ideas just not well planned and well exicuted ones. However if God said you should start one then you should always believe that God will put into the works what is needed for it’s success which includes preparing you for the task.

    11. Pete King on Mon, June 27, 2005

      Sorry Todd,


      I just now read your last post. I think maybe the answer lies in, “Do we believe that God said it?” If we are fully convinced that God said we should start an outreach service then we should do it. That’s how we are approaching this Street witnessing class. The person leading the class has felt that God wanted him to start it so he did. The question now is “What determines success?” Are lives being ministered to? The answer is yes. Are we meeting Biblical objectives? Again, the answer is yes. If we can honestly say yes that those things are being done than it is entirely up to God to supply the increase. Right now all that’s needed regarding the witnessing class including follow up and descipleship programs are not in place but God doesn’t always build it the way we expect. I guess what I’m saying here is if we believe God would have us do this than we must stick with it until God releases us from it. I don’t know that church’s particular situation but sometimes it isn’t God at all that causes it to fail. Sometimes it’s entirely our fault. I believe that is why I continue to beat this dead horse. We need to hear from God. If God doesn’t speak to us about what we are doing then what chance do we really have of making it work. So much taught today is from the view that God molds our plans but I think it’s more than just molding that He is doing. He’s speaking to us and we need to get alone with God and wait in our closet just as Elijah found himself in a cave when he finally heard God was in the still small voice. So much of our world today is filled with noise that we can’t hear what He is saying. God wants us to block out the outside distractions and really ask Him, “What do you want me to do God?” Then and only then can we truly know what is right and what is just outside noise. Anyway, I hope that helps. I’m certainly not an expert but I have learned that if God said then that settle’s it. He will bring it to pass. Only believe.

    12. Keith on Mon, June 27, 2005

      These are good questions to ask. None of us want to be “off target” when it comes to what we are doing for God. So how do we evaluate it? I think a great place to begin is, “What did God want? And then “what were the intial goals in doing the ‘new thing’.” If the goal is widescale adoption of a certain crictical mass, then realizing the market is not there to achieve crictical mass may well mean shutting it down. (Critical mass defined as enough mass to sustain a certain set of criteria) But sometimes you cannot assure critical mass on some projects. Sometimes God doesn’t command we hit the mark of critical mass.  Certain organizations will obviously require cricital mass to be around. If the goal was to start a self supporting church, then it will NEED to hit those critical mass numbers before the money/energy of the core runs out. However, if the goal is to start a clothing ministry to the poor, then the critical mass may be in the form of volunteer support or in affordable sources of clothing.  In EITHER circumstance, the question is still sustainability of the goals for which we began a certain endeavor. At this point I have to invoke the old, “where God guides, God provides” principle. It very well could be that a ministry needs to be revamped, or restructured because its not longer serving the original goals and purpose and therefore is not sustaining. (One could argue it is now outside God’s will and needs to be brought back on course.)  Restructure may be necessary, or it may be time to “shut it down.”  How do we know? When do we know? A lot of it depends upon the particular ministry we are describing. For the church planters I coach, I suggest monthly re-evaluation, quarterly re-evaluation and yearly re-evaluation. To ask, “Are we achieving what we believe God wanted in this?” Agreed, one person reached is worth it all. But if the goal was to produce a fully functioning, God supported community with full-time staff - and you don’t have unlimited funds, and your one convert isn’t tithing enough to cover the expenses - then you will HAVE to restructure accordingly or go bankrupt. Granted restructure may mean, getting a job and meeting with this one in Bible studies. But its still restructure.  When do you evaluate and restructure? It depends on what we are starting with in the way of goals or a calling. Perhaps this question would be better served if we started with a true to life ministry application.

    13. Ben E. on Mon, June 27, 2005

      The difficulty in measuring a ministry’s growth is the very nature of who we are “working” for. God is so wonderfully and gloriously unpredictable!  We can follow His lead but we can’t fathom where He is ulitmately going!


      In the beginning, Jesus’ ministry might have had a growth line similar to Fig. A. Yet, after the cross, the line would have fallen into what would seem oblivion.  In our eyes, a colossal failure!  Yet for God, it was all part of the plan which led to the fig. C type of growth that might mirror the early church.  Granted, the are some very important Spiritual factors that occured between the cross and Acts but I’m generalizing.

      God has the privalege of knowing & guiding the ultimate outcome while we must work in the here & now. Yes, we do have the help of scripture and the Holy Spirit but in the end we’re stepping out on faith.


      When it’s good, even the struggles can bring a joy all it’s own.  But when it’s bad, you begin to feel like your dragging a big dead animal across the desert hoping to reach the next watering hole to revive it!


      You know it’s dead but people (and yourself?) have become attached to it and hate to see it go.  Others are saying your not pulling hard enough or fast enough.  Yeah, right.

       

      I aggree with something Rick Warren expressed about this.  When it’s time to “end it,” you take a moment to express thanks and appreciation for that ministry and the effort put into it, THEN BURY IT!

       

    14. Mike Popovich on Mon, June 27, 2005

      If you look at curve A and curve C the difference is you do not know what curve A looked like in the time before the new ministry took off.  It looked like curve C.


      That time was spent in establishing the values of a discipleship ministry.  Discipleship ministry is not a study, it is the duplication of Jesus in the life of a follower to the point he/she begins to duplicate in someone else.

      As Pastors, we do not come up with all the ministry that is to be.  We raise up the disciples that God will give much of the ministry to. 


      In a marriage if you want to know how your relationship is going, don’t speculate, ask your spouse, they will tell you and dispel any delusions you may have. 


      In the church, ask the flock.  Are they winning spiritual battles?  Are they talking to their neighbors and investing their lives in the people God has placed in their sphere of influence?  If not, we are not going and making disciples.

       

      Launching a successful program means we must instill those basic values and capitalize on the creativity God gives the ministry team He has called together.  If the ministry is not building bridges to the lives of unbelievers, and people are not motivated to become duplicating disciples, then it is time to consider another ministry to invest in.  That may mean bringing one ministry to a close and finding where God wants us to invest in the next. 


      If this is not the mind of the leadership, then not much leading is going on and the effective future of the church is in question. 


      Turning a church around takes 5-7 years of constantly instilling principle of discipleship.  There will encouraging signs along the way, but it will be hard work.  Just don’t settle for the idea that God is blessing you if your body is shrinking and dying off.  That is not the vision of the Kingdom of God on Earth.

    15. Ricky on Mon, June 27, 2005

      [deleted by moderator]


      Moderator:


      You went down that road anyway, Ricky, after I stated repeatedly that we weren’t going there.  :(  Todd

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