The Four Curves of Want and Get

Orginally published on Monday, June 27, 2005 at 7:02 AM
by Todd Rhoades

As a pastor of church leader, how do you feel when you start something new?  It could be a new ministry, a new class, a new worship service… even a new church plant.  There is always a risk of failure with something new.  But how do you know if your ‘new thing’ is a giant success or a huge flop?  Sometimes it’s hard to tell initially.  That’s what today’s insight is all about…

Seth Godin is a genius.  Well, at least as far as I'm concerned... he has a way of verbalizing some of the things that I have a hard time putting on paper. He writes from more of a marketing/business background, but what he says applies well, I think to the church and what we do as leaders...  I'll improvise a little of what Seth wrote to make it a little more applicable to our situations.Take a look at these graphs:

When you launch a new ministry, service, church, (or whatever), you want A. A is a steep launch curve followed, after the dotted line, by a steep acceptance curve.

A is the curve of the hot knife through butter. A is the curve of big buzz. A is the curve of the unserved audience and the perfect idea.

That's what you want.

Usually, though, you get B.

B looks the same as A for a while. But then it stops.

B stops because your new idea isn't for everybody. B stops because many new ministries and offerings have a small but eager audience of early adopters, just itching to try something new. And then, once reality sets in, your idea stops spreading.

Seth continues... When I launched my ebook, I thought for a minute I had A. I sold a bazillion of them in one night. And then, bam, I had B. Sales slowed really fast. Why? Was it lousy? I don't think it was. I think the audience of people who were standing by to buy an ebook from me was very connected to me and to each other, they heard about it right away, they bought it right away and then, there you go, the entire market was saturated.

Curve C is the most likely curve of success, not A. Curve C is the remarkable idea that takes a while to find its footing. Then, the idea starts moving through communities and slowly builds, until, yes, this new thing is remarkable and you've got a hit.

Alas, soon after launch, there's no way to tell C from D, is there? D is the curve of the dud. Most launches are duds. Not a lot you can do about it.

The challenges are pretty obvious. First, how do you decide where to put the dotted line? Second, how do you avoid killing something too early, or celebrating too early. And last, how do you know when to kill a dud? The odds are with those smart enough to launch something new tomorrow.

Where do you draw the line in ministry?  How do you know when something new you're trying is successful?  How do you determine when something new you're trying is a bomb and needs to be discontinued? 

Sometimes I think we error on both sides many times... keeping what isn't working, hoping that it magically will start working; while at other times canning things too early, before they really get a chance to take hold.  To be sure, this is one of the most challenging things in leadership; and in ministry leadership in particular.

FOR DISCUSSION:  So... are you a good line drawer?  How do you make these tough decisions?  Can you give us any examples in your ministry that might be helpful to others today?  I'd love to hear your input!

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Hi... I'm Todd Rhoades. I'm a Christ-follower, husband, father and I love to connect leaders with other leaders. Hopefully you'll find something here at MMI you like and will return often. If you want, you can find out more about me or follow my every step on Twitter.

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